DECISION-MAKING AND QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS USING MODELRISK

These hands-on web courses have been designed for anyone who needs to incorporate uncertainty about future events into their Microsoft Excel spreadsheet models, and/or anybody who wants to introduce risk-based decision-making into their organisation. Attendees will explore how the use of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) facilitates improved decision quality across any industry vertical, and why the information and insights generated by this process should be an essential requirement – and practice - for any modern business.

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The course introduces attendees to the concepts and methods involved in quantitative risk modelling using Monte Carlo simulation, and how to confidently interpret and challenge the resulting outputs.

Attendees will learn:

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• techniques to build models which incorporate probabilistic analysis from scratch, and how to convert an existing deterministic model - or template - into a stochastic model which considers all possible realistic outcomes.

• how expert opinion or empirical (historic) data can be translated into robust & transparent model inputs using Vose Software's ModelRisk.

• how to quantify exposure to downside risk, test mitigation strategies, run scenario analysis, and quantify the likelihood of meeting business objectives

• how to interpret output distributions and the results of sensitivity analysis.

• how to create report templates, and present important & relevant information to decision makers.

​All concepts are introduced using example models that can serve as templates for attendee’s own business requirements.

Session 1 : 1400-1800 CET, 29th March
An introduction to risk analysis using ModelRisk, including adding risk to models and interpreting outputs.

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• Introduction to probability, Monte Carlo Simulation and statistics

• Exploring the ModelRisk environment

• Adding uncertainty to deterministic models

• Simulating and simulation settings

• Output and results interpretation

​Session 2 : 1400-1800 CET, 30th March
Extends the concepts from the first day’s session and includes decisions on distribution selection, and adding risk registers to models

• Reporting simulation results in Excel using ModelRisk simulation statistics functions

• Discrete and continuous distributions

• Applying risk registers to models

• Model logic

• Fitting distributions to historic data

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Session 3 : 1400-1800 CET, 31st March
Explores the importance of sensitivity analysis, correlations, and forecasting using time series models.

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• Sensitivity analysis and its interpretation

• Correlation & copulas: importance, implementation, and interpretation

• Stochastic time series forecasting

• Advanced modelling questions, topics are dependent on the group and their modelling needs

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Program Level: Beginner to Intermediate
Cost: 1,000 Euros (+VAT) per attendee. Discounts are available on request for larger groups
Prerequisites: Familiarity with Microsoft Excel. No advanced preparation required. Attendees will require their own computer, with a trial/full version of ModelRisk installed. Reliable internet connection and ideally two monitors (one to visualize the presentation and one for the models to follow along the exercise).
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The course also includes a 3-month full license of ModelRisk for attendees who don't already own the software. 

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Delivered By Experts – The Ferryfield Group (Accredited Vose Software Training Partners)

The course is delivered by The Ferryfield Group, whose highly skilled consultants, bring many years of experience, expertise, and knowledge in the areas of risk and decision analysis, finance, statistics, business forecasting, and stochastic optimization. Ferryfield consultants have worked across many different industries and geographies, providing thought leadership and modelling expertise to some of the world's largest companies.

Please email Craig Ferri at craig@ferryfieldgroup.com to register for the course, or if you require any additional information.