Safran Risk Fundamentals Practitioner

Using best practices as recommended by the AACEI and others, attendees will be taught how to convert an existing Primavera P6, or Microsoft Project, file into a stochastic model which considers all possible realistic outcomes for costs and schedule. The course will cover estimating uncertainty, and the building of risk – and mitigation – registers. Attendees will also learn:

• how to set up their analysis and run a Monte Carlo simulation

• how to quantify exposure to downside risk, test mitigation strategies, run scenario analysis, and quantify the likelihood of achieving project cost & time objectives 

• how to interpret output distributions and the results of sensitivity analysis

• how to present important & relevant information to decision-makers

  
  
  
  

All concepts are introduced using simple example models.

AGENDA

Session 1:

0900-1330 Local London Time

An introduction to project risk analysis using Safran Risk: managing the inputs.

• Exploring the Safran Risk environment

• Importing deterministic models from Primavera P6, or Microsoft Project

• Interpreting, and managing warnings, about a schedule’s suitability for probabilistic analysis

• Building – or importing - a cost model with a cost breakdown structure (CBS) 

• How to model fixed vs variable costs, and the linking of costs to activities from a work breakdown structure (WBS)

• Estimating uncertainty, and how to apply it 

• Different types of risk, including calendar risks and probabilistic branching

• Building a risk register

• Mapping risks to costs and/or schedule

• Correlating inputs

Session 2:

0900-1330 Local London Time 

Setting up an analysis, running a simulation, and interpreting the results.

• Analysis and simulation settings 

• Interpreting distribution graphs for cost & schedule: histograms and S-Curves

• Calculating contingency at a given percentile & how to customise graphs

• Sending results to the database for comparative analysis

• Interpreting driver tornadoes for cost and schedule 

• Running a sensitivity analysis & the importance of stochastic optimisation

• Scatter plots and Joint Confidence Levels (JCLs): integrating cost and schedule risks analysis

• Probabilistic cash flows 

• Critical path maps

• Safran Risk Fundamentals certification examination.

Program Level: Beginner to Intermediate

Investment: 695 GBP per attendee; discounts are available for larger groups. 

Prerequisites: Familiarity with risk management techniques, and the fundamentals of Monte Carlo simulation. No advanced preparation required. Attendees will require their own computer, with a trial/full version of Safran Risk installed. Reliable internet connection and ideally two monitors (one to visualise the presentation and one for the models to follow along the exercise).

Certification: attendees on the course will be certified as a Safran Risk Fundamentals Practitioner, subject to the passing of the multiple-choice examination at the close of the course with a >75% score