From Gut Feel to Monte Carlo: Turning Expert Judgment into Data
Thu 23 Apr
|Remote
Most projects rely on expert judgment—but without structure, uncertainty remains unusable. We show how to convert qualitative insights into probabilistic models using AI and QRA to drive better decisions.
Time & Location
23 Apr 2026, 11:30 – 12:30 GMT-5
Remote
About the event
📘 Course Overview
The challenge is not the lack of insight — it’s the lack of structure. Without a systematic way to translate these perspectives into data, uncertainty remains vague, inconsistent, and difficult to act upon.
This session demonstrates how to bridge that gap by transforming qualitative knowledge into quantitative, simulation-ready inputs using a structured and repeatable approach supported by AI.
We will explore how to:
Elicit expert judgment effectively using AI-driven prompts that reduce bias and improve clarity
Structure uncertainty rigorously, defining realistic ranges, distributions, and correlations across variables