Mapping is not Enough - Masterclass - Risk Configuration in Safran Risk

This webinar by Guz Vinueza explores why traditional risk mapping in project schedules is often insufficient and how a more advanced approach to risk propagation can significantly improve the realism of project outcomes. Using a tunnel construction case study, it demonstrates how the way risks are configured—rather than just defined—can dramatically alter schedule forecasts, contingency requirements, and confidence levels. Participants will gain a clear understanding of how different modeling choices influence results, supported by practical examples and Monte Carlo-based analysis showing impacts on P50, P80, and overall project duration.

Building on this foundation, the session introduces five key risk propagation patterns—including series vs. parallel impacts, independent vs. dependent risks, partial activation, overrides, and cascading effects—highlighting how each one shapes the behavior of complex project systems. Through these structured use cases, attendees will learn how to move beyond simplistic assumptions and develop more credible, transparent, and decision-ready risk models. The focus…