ModelRisk MasterClass - Is Your Bid Contingency Actually Enough? Using Risk Registers to Support Bid Review Decisions
Thu 17 Sept
|Virtual Event
Is a 5% contingency enough—and does it represent a P50 or a P80? This webinar shows how Monte Carlo simulation helps estimating and commercial teams quantify cost uncertainty, set contingency at different confidence levels, and protect bid margins.
Time & Location
17 Sept 2026, 09:00 – 10:00 GMT-5
Virtual Event
About the event
Is a 5% contingency really enough—and does it represent a P50, a P80, or simply a rule of thumb?
At bid stage, fixed-percentage contingencies can create a false sense of confidence. Even small changes in labour costs, material prices, productivity, programme duration, or supply chain assumptions can quickly erode project profitability and expose the business to avoidable risk.
This practical webinar will show how estimating and commercial teams can move beyond static contingency percentages by modelling uncertainty around the key cost and schedule drivers within a baseline estimate. Using Monte Carlo simulation, participants will see how to quantify the probability of delivering within target, assess potential exposure to cost and time overruns, and calculate the contingency required at different confidence levels, including P50 and P80.
The session will also explore how a structured, risk-based approach can support stronger bid reviews, improve governance, communicate confidence more clearly, and help protect margin…