Quantitative Risk Virtual Summit 2nd Edition - Dec 9

Details

14:00  🎤 Welcome Remarks – Craig Ferri, Doug Oldfield, Timour Koupeev – 15 min

14:15  📊 Variability, Risk Events, and Unknowns – The 3 Pillars of Quantitative Risk Analysis

A key challenge in Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) is recognizing the need to model both natural variability and external risk events to capture true project uncertainty. Many focus on one and overlook the other, leaving analyses incomplete. This session shows how integrating both—along with unknown unknowns beyond existing data—creates more realistic models, clearer communication, and stronger foundations for risk-informed decisions.Speaker: Rafael Hartke – Imagine Risks – 45 min

15:00  ⏸️ Pause – 5 min

15:05  🎯 Keynote Presentation📊 Visualizing a Capital Project Portfolio Based on Market, Technical, and Execution Risk ExposureSpeaker: Michael Samis, Ph.D., P.Eng., Principal, SCM Decisions

Traditional static cash-flow models and “risk-adjusted” discount rates hide crucial geological, country, financial, and portfolio-level uncertainties. By converting these exposures into quantified probabilistic models, you gain a far richer understanding of project value and risk.  Instead of relying on simplistic histograms, advanced simulation delivers clear, visual insights that communicate uncertainty far more effectively — at both the project and corporate portfolio levels.

Key highlights include:• Economic simulation in mining – capturing true uncertainty in geology, operations, and markets.• Flexibility case study – valuing optionality and adaptive decision paths.• Financing case study – understanding capital structure impacts on project risk and value.• Portfolio case study – quantifying risk interactions across the asset base.

This approach — championed by Michael Samis — empowers leadership teams to make smarter, more transparent investment decisions.

16:00  ⏸️ Pause – 5 min

16:05  🏭 Ferryfield MasterClassFrom Ideas to Launch: A Stage-Gate Simulation Framework for Project Portfolios – Ferryfield – 40 minSpeaker: Gustavo Vinueza

Abstract: We present a simplified simulation model that tracks project progress through gates, capturing cumulative costs and probabilities of continuation. Results highlight the expected partial totals by phase and overall project yield.

16:45  ⏸️ Pause – 5 min

16:50  🔹 What’s Coming – 30 min📣 Education – Upcoming Events & Webinars – Craig Ferri🔄 What’s New in Vose Solutions – Timour Koupeev – 25 min👋 Closing Remarks – Craig Ferri